AMX,AVID,AXP,CEG,ERIC,FIS,GNW,GT,HANS,HXM,IBKR,ITT,MFE, MO,NOC,NTGR,NTY,PKI,SIVB,SWN,TRMB,TRN,V,WDC,WMGI,FRE,COF
FNM
Well, no trades again for me today. However a couple of charts that I would like to comment on.
NTGR (gap down)
After wild first bar, the price action begins to settle down and we have a downtrend within the OR. It does not really follow thru until later in the day. Candles 13, 14 and 15 are all weak and follow the ema down. The 15th closes right on the OR and closes weak itself. This would be our trigger. I wasn't watching it at the time, so didn't trade it. And worth noting that although it would have been a "lunch time" trade, it did fit the pattern and would have produced a decent profit.
COF (gap up)
After strong start, the price retraces. We then have a hammer like bounce off the previous day's high, confirming it as support. This candle closes strong and the next is a NR7 which closes above the ema. I am adding this chart, because I know traders who trade this sort of pattern, i.e. gap up then pullback to a support area or fib area etc. Personally I always seem to have trouble trading pullbacks and can't seem to get consistent results with them. Consequently, I don't tend to trade them much, but in this case it would have given good results as the distance from entry to OR high is greater than a $1 run.
Anyway. Have a good weekend.
10 comments:
TR: thanks for previous response. I'd appreciate your feedback on NTGR & FNM:
FNM: would you have traded and your entry/exit point?
NTGR: I entered off 16th bar b/d (hang-man)just below the OR.
From my entry to 18th bar low, I had 1R profit, I then moved my stop to B/E. The massive green bar reversal was a spooky bullish engulfing pattern, which closed extremely strong.
Considering such a powerful reversal bar, and before "letting a profit turn into a loss", I exited at about b/e.
Any thoughts? Thanks, Ralph
TR: If I understand your money management rules, it goes something like this:
1R profit, move stop to B/E
2R profit, move stop to 1R
3R profit (or $1 profit), exit 50% position, and move stop to 2R.
Exit at Fib or end-of-day.
It seems you rarely exit using candlestick reversal patterns.
Any thoughts will be greatly appreciated. Thanks, Ralph
Hammers are good, esp at end of run/reversal.
ntgr was a slow grind and a tricky setup. I entered (forget right now) and looked to take some profit at the low of the day (think 17.08) but it never got that far and started reversing. Fortunately, I had partialed out at breakeven then sold the rest for a small loss.
I know what you're saying about the COF pattern but I just get myself to trade that kind of chart.
Have a good weekend.
ralph
FNM -> Yes. A couple of thoughts. The 8th bar is a bullish green hammer which closes strong and right on the OR high. This is one possible trigger, a bit higher risk though since the previous price action was down as we had come back inside the OR.
Maybe a bit better is the consolidation of candles 9 thru 15, these consolidate above the OR and obey the ema. The 13th is a hanging man green which closes strong above the ema. So a possible trigger. You would probably have your stop below the OR in this case.
NTGR -> Yes good trade. Reached 1R and then stopped out at breakeven. It happens. The 15th bar was also a valid trigger (admittedly higher risk)and would have given a bit more room to let the price move around.
ralph
p.s > Good spot on FNM by the way, I missed that one.
Money Management ->
My exiting is not really set in stone as you may have noticed on some of my trades. Having said that, there are some rules I always stick to :
1R Profit > move stop to B/E
Fib Ext reached > take partial profits
$1 gain and 2R > take partial profits.
It all depends on the relative positions of the Fib Ext to the 1R,2R and 3R. So for example if the Fib Ext is far away and thus we are not likley to reach it before end of day, then I am more prone to take partials at 1R, 2R $1 gain etc.
Candlestick reversals > I have occasionally used them, but I tend to just leave the trade to run. If it comes all the way back to stop me out at B/E or 1R then so be it.
Exiting is hard to find out the best method. I have a performance table on the blog, but at some point I want to expand on that a bit more. Since I have been trading Live for over 3 months now, I am hoping to do some detailed analysis of all of my trades so far this year. And part of that is to review how my P/L would have changed by using different exit rules. For example > always take partial at 1R and close at Fib Ext or eod. Don't tkae any partials, and just close at Fib Ext and eod etc etc. So just reviewing the different options and seeing how they would have changed my P/L.
bl and 00nr
Thanks for comments.
TR, I also like looking at IB,s Hammers, NRB's like avid 6,7/30 ezpw 2/30 ntgr 2/30. Thanks for the site.
Traderam, as a part-time, but active day-trader, you've shown remarkable consistency in achieving R-multiple results from a a very strategic system. Nevertheless, I believe consistency does not mean profitability, and the goal of trading is not be a 100% winner, but to be the best looser. That is, to loose less when wrong but to gain big when right. While I am good with consistency, and keeping losses to a minimum, I can't seem to break the profitability barrier. Their seems to be a convergence of events that make my day trading a loosing game: eg, slippage, missing signals, expensive bid/ask spreads, non-execution of limit orders, trading mistakes and errors, unpredictable market events, software limitations, and the list goes on-and-on. In a nutshell, are you making a living day-trading? In other words, are you able to withdraw living expenses from your trading account?. Hope my question is insightfully and not personally intrusive.
James.
In a nutshell, no I am not making a living from daytrading. But then I am not trading full leverage and risk on my account. And I am also under-capitalised IMO. Having said that, for the 3 months so far this year, If I was to use full leverage and risk, then I believe I would making enough money to withdraw living expenses. I think I've mentioned before that I will post my thoughts on daytrading for a living as I see it when I have some time.
In the meantime, with reference to your "convergence of events" :
Slippage > hasn't caused me a major problem so far.
Missing signals > yes I've missed a few, but most of those have been due to work. Even if you miss a few there is normally enough signals in a month to make decent profits
Bid/Ask spreads > I avoid very large spreads where I can
Non Exec of LMT orders > has happened but rarely in my experience.
Trading mistakes and Errors > I try to be very disciplined in which entry patterns I take and my exits.
Market events ? > never been a problem
Software limitations > never been a problem (I just use QT and IB, both of which are very reliable in my experience)
In summary, bear in mind that I have only been trading Live for 3 months. Other bloggers : TraderX, Jamie, 00nr7 etc have been at it for years. They seem to make a living just fine.
Post a Comment