ANR,ASML,BEXP,BK,BP,DNA,ERIC,FTO,HK,HOC,HOT,HRS,HST, IBN,IMCL,MAR,MEE,NVS,PCX,PGR,QSFT,SOL,STO,SYMC,TSO,
WB,WLT
After some recent choppiness, a very good start to this month.
TSO (gap up)
First candle is bullish and the 2nd breaks the OR. The next 3 candles are important in that they hold the OR with longish tails as we consolidate sideways. The 6th is bullish, off the ema and the OR and also closes strong itself. This is our long trigger.
Entry: 26.69 Stop: 26.21
Fib Ext: 27.37
1R=27.17 2R=27.65 3R=28.13
We trend up initially but can't hold the whole number to get to 1R. During middle of the day we retrace, but the OR is still holding firm. Then we finally get our move upwards right at end of the day. We take partial at Fib Ext (1.5R) and the rest at end of day (2R).
IBN (gap down)
After red WRB first candle, we drop to OR then go sideways. The 5th is a very weak candle which breaks the OR and closes weak. Ideally it could have been closer to ema.
Entry: 35.61 Stop: 35.90
The initial move shows promise, but the 9th candle closes back inside the OR, so we close our position for a loss. Then we have narrowing candles which fail to continue the momentum of the 9th. The 12th is a NR3 and NR7 which closes on the OR. This is our trigger candle.
I don't normally trade the same stock twice, but if the pattern is present then there is no reason why not. The 9th candle had made me wary, so I didn't use my full position size for this second trade.
Entry: 35.63 Stop: 35.78
Fib Ext: 34.63
1R=35.48 2R=35.33 3R=35.18
The next two candles were in our favour and we took partial profits at 2R. The rest was left to run until end of day.
FTO (gap up)
First candle is bullish and the 2nd breaks the OR. The next several candles continue up then pullback sideways where they gain support of the ema. The 8th is hanging man type doji NR7,NR3 and off ema. This is our long trigger.
Entry: 32.25 Stop; 32.05
Fib Ext: 32.74
1R= 32.45 2R= 32.65 3R=32.85
We move up nicely and take partial profits at the Fib Ext (2.5R). The rest doesn't follow thru and is closed at breakeven.
BK (gap down)
First candle is indecisive. The next few trend down to the oR, where we find some support. The 8th is NR7 which holds the OR as resistance and is close to the ema. This is our trigger.
Entry: 42.83 Stop: 43.10
Fib Ext: 42.24
1R=42.56 2R= 42.29 3R= 42.02
The price falls nicely with the ema and we take partial at 2R (Fib Ext). The rest is closed at end of day for a 1R gain.
7 comments:
FTO 3/15 trigger bar. Too far from ema?
I am impressed with your patience on TSO. Do you ever bail out of a trade if it does not look like its going your way, or do you just let your initial stop do the work for you. After the 12:30 strong sell off I would have been worried.
If TSO reached 1R would you have moved your stop to BE?
Congrats on a good day. Nice way to start off the month!
pdt..
No, I don't tend to bail out. I did try that approach while I was paper trading and sometimes it was to my advantage, other times it wasn't. So I've kind of decided to just let my stops do the work and see how the stock runs until end of day.
Yes, once I reach 1R, I move my stop to breakeven. This was only a few cents away on TSO, so maybe got a bit lucky there. On another day it would have reached 1R before retracing.
TR: couple of ques:
(1) TSO: 6th candle low was 26.32. The prior bar low was 26.27. Why was your stop at 26.21?
(2) BK: 8th bar high 43.03, low 42.87.
(a) Why was your entry 42.83, and stop at 43.10? Why was your stop within the OR range?
(b) The 7th bar did not close strong = just a red bar.
(c) The trigger bar also did not close strong.
(d) The 10th bar did close strong and perhaps a better entry bar?
Thanks, Ralph
nice job with the trades today, I closed TSO at BE. For your other trades with NR bars, it seems like HST (6), IMCL (6-13), PCX (6) might work as well. Could you explain more what you look for and why you didn't take those trades? Thanks
ralph.
1) TSO > Stop was based on the OR (5c below), not on the entry candle.
2) BK >
a) In most cases my entry is 4c away from the trigger bar and my stop 5c away from the Stop level. I increased my stop slightly on this trade because of the whole number. If the entry candle high or low is inside the OR then in most cases the stop is based on the trigger bar, not on the OR level. If you look at my past trades Stop levels, this is almost always the case.
b), c) Yes but it was a NR7 and attempted to close back into OR but failed. And it was reasonably close to the ema. I take your point that it was not a Grade A setup.
d) Both 10th and 12th were better entries than mine. IF I had not already been in the trade then i would have taken those.
Chartguy.
HST > It was a nice setup. I just missed it. When i came back to look at the chart, the 7th bar had weakened well below the entry point, so I didn't chase it. A NR bar, so you would have got good R on that ?
IMCL > Gapped down, but then strengthened. Most of the day it was in the upper part of the OR. So I never considered it as a short trade.
PCX > Nice 1st candle and nice gentle pullback after it crossed the OR. If you made a case for the 6th bar, NR7 on the pullback, then I wouldn't argue with it too much.
You could also say that it didn't close strong, it didn't close above the whole number and it was a red candle for a long position.
These factors plus the fact that I'm still not fully confident on pullbacks was the reason I didn't enter the trade.
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