ABI,ABX,ACI,ADM,BCSI,BMRN,BRS,BUD,CMED,CMI,DRYS,DSX, EGLE,ENS,EXM,GG,GNK,IBN,IVGN,KGC,NEM,OXY,QCOM,ROC,TOT
Quite a 'moving' day today with lots of action and some interesting stuff to write about.
CMED (gap up)
Red first is followed by a trend up to the OR. The 5th breaks and closes above the OR. The 6th is NR3 hammer like and also tests the OR before closing above it. The 7th is also hammer like and is NR3 and NR7. It also tests the OR and closes above it. The ema could have been closer in an ideal world, but the 5th,6th and 7th as combination was enough for me to use the 7th as long trigger.
Entry: 38.86 Stop: 38.45
Fib Ext: 40.94
1R=39.27 2R=39.68 3R=40.09
The candle after entry is promising as it closes higher and also holds the OR. There is no strong follow thru and we go sideways for rest of the day but stay strong above the OR. We close at end of day for just under 2R.
QCOM (gap up)
First candle closes strong after rejecting previous days high. The 2nd breaks the OR. Then comes the retracement which tests the OR as support. The 6th is bullish green which comes off the oR and ema and closes strong. This is our long trigger.
Entry:48.63 Stop:48.07
Fib Ext: 48.81
1R= 49.19 2R=49.75 3R=50.31
We take partial at 1R just past whole number and the Fib Ext. The rest is closed at breakeven as the stock weakens late in the day.
IBN (Gap up)
The first candle is strong thru the previous day's high. The 3rd breaks the OR. We then retrace back inside the OR over the next few candles. The 7th is bullish which breaks thru OR and closes strong. This is our long trigger.
Entry: 35.63 Stop:35.17
Fib Ext:36.40
1R= 36.09 2R=36.55 3R=37.01
There is no follow thru as we try to get past the $36 level, then later in the day we close our position for a loss as it comes back into the OR. You could argue that the rejection of $36 was significant and warranted a move to breakeven.
GNK (gap down)
Quite a wild mover this one. We trend down past the OR in first few candles. Then we retrace back and test the OR from below. The 9th bounces off the oR and ema and closes weak. This is our short trigger.
Entry: 53.16 Stop:53.57
Fib Ext: 50.97
1R= 52.75 2R=52.34 3R=51.93
The price action looks good as we reach 1R on the next candle. But then we come back and are stopped out at breakeven. There are some good entries later on since the price never closes back inside the OR. A bit unlucky to be stopped out (IMO) as later in the day it falls some distance and would have given very good rewards.
GG (gap down)
First candle is weak. After trend up we come back down with the ema. The 7th is a NR7 and breaks the OR and closes weak off the ema. This is our short trigger.
Entry: 37.78 Stop: 38.07
Fib Ext:36.96
1R=37.49 2R=37.20 3R=36.91
We go down a bit past the OR but no further as the price strengthens and we are close our position for a loss after the 11th candle completes inside the OR.
EGLE (gap down)
This is where luck was in my favour. After 1st red candle we trend down to the oR. The 5th tests the ema and oR and closes weak. I was a bit late getting to this chart and when I placed my order the price had strengthened on the 6th candle, so I was never triggered. The stock moved back inside the OR before once again weakening. The 9th breaks the OR and closes weak and is NR7 and is close to the ema. However due to the 6th candle I was a bit cautious and so waited. The 11th is gravestone doji red type which is off the ema and NR7 and closes weak. This was my short trigger.
Entry: 26.46 Stop: 26.74
Fib Ext: 25.85
1R= 26.18 2R=25.90 3R=25.62
Got close to being stopped out, but we got our reward late in the day as it weakened and we closed all our position at the Fib Ext (around 2R).
Overall a mixed bag, but still a profitable day. Unlucky in GG and GNK but balanced by some luck in EGLE. Also bit of a change of pace today, where it seemed to me that there was much more movement generally after the recent doldrums.
9 comments:
Have you ever thought about using the 5min time frame to tighten up some of your stops. Particularly in the case with IBN and QCOM.
pdt.
Always open to new ideas. Let's take IBN for example, how would I tighten my stops on the 5min chart ?
TR: congrats on the trades. You were pretty aggressive today. But if the signals are there, you gotta trade em! Some observations:
(1) In analyzing the Nasdaq: (a) had a WRB OR (usually equals a consolidation day). (b)It did b/o of OR, but on very wear bar. (c) had an NR7 that closed weak. (d) and subsequently reversed back into OR (e) and it was all downhill from there.
(2) CMED: The OR b/o bar was weak (upper wick). The entry bar was red, and extended from 5ema. Seem like a higher risk trade to me.
(3) QCOM and IBN: Trigger bar were strong WRB. Best to wait for a lower risk bar?
Some thoughts. Ralph
IBN for example. Your entry candle is VERY bullish but also quite wide. If you drill down to the 5min timeframe you can see the 11:00 candle breaks the ORH. 11:05 then opens on its low and also closes above the ORH but still is nothing to be excited about. Then the 11:10 candle tests the 5ema but bounces right off of it and closes at its high. Instead of using the low of the 15min candle as your stop you could potentially use the low of the last very bullish 5min candle as your stop offering a greater reward (of course with more risk). You can also see an increase of volume on the 11:10 candle thus confirming the momentum of the move.
Same premise on QCOM (10:45 -> 10:55 candles). QCOM actually looks a little nicer because all 3 of those candles open above the ORH, close quite strong and all are on increasing volume. The 3rd of which is NR7 consolidating under the morning swing high. Possibly a good strategy would to be use a low of this NR7 as a stop and a few cents above the morning swing high as an entry.
It's just using such wide bars as triggers may not offer enough reward relative to the risk. For example the risk/reward on QCOM to the fib ext is less than .5R!
It seems that the trades that end up working well usually go in your favor immediately after entry anyway so you do not gain much by having a wider initial stop.
These are just my thoughts so I would your 2cents.
Cheers.
Just curious why you did not trade ENS from your list. I passed because of the wide range first bar.
pdt.
Thanks for the info. Personally I find it quite difficult to switch timeframes once in a trade. I know that good traders do it, so maybe it's a skill I need to learn.
That aside, the point about the trigger bar being wide is a good one. These have worked in the past e.g. TSO on 2/june , CCL on 06/June. But overall maybe the proportion of winners is not enough to justify an entry.
The point about reward from Entry to Fib Ext is also a good one. I think it is worth maybe declining trades where the Fib Ext is such that the reward is 1R or less.
ralph.
1) Do you use top down approach ? So only trade in direction of the market ?
2) CMED > OR breakout bar was weak in sense of upper wick. But it did close green. The next candle confirmed OR as support.
Yes the entry bar was red, but take note of the price action of what happened before it. The trend up was bullish, a few longish tails. We had 3 successive bars closing above the OR. I agree the ema distance was not ideal. A lot of the time it's a judgement call, do the strong points about the setup override the weak points ?
3) Yes agree with you as my reply to pdt.
Thanks for your comments. And it is strange that while i was trading it didn't seem that way, but looking back it does appear that perhaps I was trading more aggressively. Interesting !!!
greytrader.
ENS > I was watching it, but i didn't really see an entry that I liked. So that was the reason I didn't trade it rather than the first bar wide range.
If you are into trading pullbacks then the 7th hammer like candle is close to 50% fib pullback from open and also closes above whole number £34. Also a good distance from OR high to take partials.
Always easy in hindsight though :-)
TR: No I do not enter/exit positions based on the general market action.
Nevertheless, by analyzing Nasdaq, as I would a stock chart, I try to (A) get a better grasp of general market conditions (when compared to my watch list behavior), and (B) more/less aggressive on up/down gap positions.
Foe example, (1) the market was rallying strong today (friday 6/13): (2) however, there was very little "great" set-ups available (2) my very best set-up was APOL (NR7 6th bar b/o) (3) but this low risk trade just could not follow thru to higher highs, (4) so I became a bit cautious and passed on any trade whose trigger bar was suspect.
Hope this helps, Ralph
Post a Comment