Trades 08/July/2008

Watchlist:
AGU,ASML,CCL,CF,CMC,ECA,ERJ,GSK,HK,JRCC,
KIM,MMC,MOS,MT,NVS,SPLS,SU,TLM,TS,VOD

Hope you guys did ok today. But for me it was a loser. And also a few mistakes to highlight.

ASML (gap down)

Gap down is followed by green first and then we trend down with the ema past the OR. We retrace back towards the OR. The 8th is a hanging man red candle and NR7 and NR3 and closing below the ema. This is our short trigger.

Entry: 22.90 Stop: 23.10
Fib Ext: 22.59
1R=22.70 2R=22.50 3R=22.30

It looked promising after entry, but there was no follow thru and it just went sideways for rest of the session. We closed at end of day for around breakeven.

CCL (gap up)

First candle is thru the prev day's high and holds it on a closing basis. We then have sideways action along the OR. The 6th candle breaks the OR and the ema and closes strong itself. This is a potential trigger. However, I waited to see what the next candle would do. This 7th was next trigger, but our order never triggered. We then continue rising and the 8th is bullish green NR7 and closes strong itself. This is our long trigger.

Entry: 33.45 Stop: 33.28
Fib Ext:33.37 (so past)
1R=33.62 2R=33.79 3R=33.96

We trend up nicely after entry and reach 1R. But then we are stopped out on the pullback at breakeven. Shame, because later in the day it surged up. Maybe the 6th candle entry would have been better and caught the late day surge.

TLM (gap down)

Green first, then it's weakness as we break past the OR. We then have the retracement we are waiting for. The 9th is red NR7 below the ema and closing weak. This is our short trigger.

Entry: 18.81 Stop:19.05
Fib Ext: 18.61
1R=18.57 2R=18.33 3R=18.09

Doesn't follow thru at all and we are stopped out for a loss a few candles later.

TS (gap down)

1st candle weak as is the 2nd. We trend down before some sideways consolidation and pullback up with the ema above providing resistance. The 8th is red off the ema and closing weak. This is our short trigger.

Entry: 64.76 Stop:65.20
Fib Ext:64.58
1R=64.32 2R=63.88 3R=63.44

It never follows thru and we are stopped out for a loss a few candles later. This trade shouldn't have been taken because the Fib ext didn't really give a good risk/reward opportunity.

So overall a losing day with some mistakes. The main thing is how to handle it in relation to next day's trading. Ideally it should be 'gone' from our minds since tomorrow is another day. This is where paper trading is easier, since there is no problem with having losing days then still sticking with your rules and strategies the next day. For real trading it's difficult, since the natural reaction is to question the strategy and see if there is a problem with it. What if we have another losing day tomorrow ? Can we still keep the faith for the next day etc. Only time will tell :-) .

I try to take it on a month by month basis. So there is still a long while to go before the end of the month. And I've had a good run of winning months, so it's not the end of the world.