APWR,ATI,BABY,CIEN,COH,CSC,CSIQ,CTXS,GENZ,GYMB,IPI, ISIL,JASO,KEG,MAN,RRC,RSG,SNDA,SOL,WMI,YGE,ZION
Yes, a very slow day today, couldn't find much.
WMI (gap down)
First candle bearish, 2nd breaks the OR and then we retrace back into OR. The 7th is just a data spike. 8th is red weak and crosses OR. It is also off the ema, a NR7 and closes weak itself. This is our short trigger.
Entry: 34.56 Stop: 34.85
Fib Ext: 33.77
1R= 34.27 2R=33.98 3R=33.69
The price action looks promising after entry as we reach 1R, but there is no follow thru and we just go sideways after that. We are stopped out at breakeven later in the day.
Made some minor profit in RSG. But other than that, I couldn't reallly get much. ZION was a nice move, but it was too close to Fib Ext, so I declined it. Also MAN was looking promising but got a bit wild and there wasn't a decent risk/reward entry that I could see.
6 comments:
TR: in regards to backtesting trader x system, Ameritrade's strategy desk software can go back as far as 2 years on the 15 min chart. With a $2k minimum trading account balance you can get it for free (call 1-800-669-3900 for info) It is a great program with lots of other backtesting ideas.
For the gap symbols, I simple jot down all the trades X made for the periods I am interested in.
Ralph
ralph.
Ok thx for the info. But to do a proper backtest, IMO we would need the list of gap stocks for that day. OK you can check TraderX blog, but there is nothing to say what other trades he made or declined.
You need a watchlist of gap stocks, then follow the 15min chart for each day (just as we now do live) and either enter or decline positions and see the results. All IMO of course.
TR: Absolutely!
However, here is what I hope to accomplish by backtesting:
1- my ability to spot & trade a pattern bar set-up as the trade unfolds on the 15 min.
2- one year market cycle to determine the fluctuation of my R's on a month-to-month basis
3- An idea of what win/loss % I can expect each month
4- # of losses I can expect in a row
5- # of weeks/months I incur losses
6- the net expectancy per trade
7- the net results of utilizing various exit targets
In short, By backtesting, I hope to internalize my system and trade gap b/o with confidence, handle 10 plus losses in a row, and prove to some degree that it is possible to be net profitable month after month.
I believe if I can approach daytrading like a poker player, by limiting losses, managing exits, and understanding the odds of my game, I will trade with more confidence. But this requires lots of practice in trading gaps and com ming to terms with the odds of the game.
Thanks, Ralph
Ralph.
Sounds like a good plan. You seem to have all the bases covered.
So using Ameritrade you can look at 15min charts for 2 years. How will you find the gapping stocks for any given day, and hence follow their 15min charts ?
Thanks
TR: I am currently analyzing, on a month to month basis, all the gaps traded by oonr7 for the last one year. I am not looking to duplicate his system, only to build a watchlist of gaps where I can then apply my method.
Ultimately, I am trying to analyze one year data to have a better understanding of the overall outcome of my system.
Nevertheless, I still track the market on a daily basis to keep a running score on my "expected" performance.
Hope this helps, Ralph
Word of advice, you need to go were the market is and where fear and greed are prevalent. I have made made 23% off of Fannie Mae the last two days using the principles of trader-x, Jamie, and you. Before I execute any trade on a 15 minute chart I take a peak at the 3 minute chart per Jamie. I am learning that volume and volatility are the keys to success while focusing on the leaders in sectors. Thoughts?
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