Friday, 18 July 2008

Trades 18/July/2008

Initial Watchlist:
AZ,BCS,BRL,C,CBST,CEG,CS,GILD,HBC,IBN,INFA, MAN,MAT,MOS,MTL,SAY,SLB,SYK,TKC,TSL,UBS,WERN

Was a bit late into the market today due to work committments. Although very pleased with my profits today, I did leave some on the table. When trading is hitting a rough patch, it is very easy to be ultra cautious or bail etc at first sign of trouble. Sometimes this can work against you.

MAN (gap down)

Red WRB 1st. We have a peek below OR before recovering. The decade $50 level obviously plays a role in this chart. We trend sideways along the lower 1/3rd of the OR for next several candles. The 9th is a red which breaks the OR and remains below the $50 level. The 10th is a hanging man doji which confirms the OR as resistance and remains below the OR. This is our short trigger.

Entry: 49.25 Stop: 49.80
Fib Ext: 47.32
1R= 48.70 2R=48.15 3R=47.60

The next candle is promising as it closes weak. This in itself is also a valid trigger bar. We retrace towards the ema and OR, but the OR holds firm and we then fall nicely and pretty much go down for the rest of the day.

I changed my exits on this to take partials at 1R, 2R (around whole number) and then the final 1/3rd was closed at end of day for around 3R.
My normal strategy would have been: move to breakeven after 1R, take partial at 2R then close rest at end of day. You can probably work out the difference this would have made to my profits. Overall though, it's nice to see a trade follow thru.

MTL (gap down)

Red 1st which moves thru previous day's low. We then have sideways action in lower half of the OR for next several candles. The 10th is weak and closes below ema. The 11th is red off the ema and breaks the OR. It also closes weak itself. This is our short trigger.

Entry: 39.55 Stop: 40.10
Fib Ext: 36.92
1R=39.00 2R=38.45 3R=37.90

We trend down before a retracement begins back up to the OR. The 15th is NR7 and NR3 and closes right smack on the OR low. Now I would normally only close my position if it closed within the OR, however today I jumped in and closed it on the next candle. Sometimes it does seem as if the market is conspiring against you > subsequently the stock falls down with the ema and would have produced decent profits at 2R. And we closed for a loss (less than a 1R loss though).

So on balance a good day, but say I had been away for 2 weeks and just got back to trading today. I can say for sure that I would have exited these trades as per my normal plan. But it's all good learning experience I suppose and I'm sure now that on Monday if I follow my exit plan to the letter, it would have been better to use the more cautious approach...lol.

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