ABB,AGU,ALL,ANF,APC,BCS,CCJ,FCX,KBR,LDK,LNC,
MET,POT,PWR,RTN,SI,SNE,TJX,TRA,UBS,UL,UNH
Initially today, it didn't look too hopeful on my watchlist as nothing was setting up. But patience does pay off sometimes. In the end, it was the sort of day which suits my strategy perfectly, i.e. catch a trend or breakout and hold it until the end.
ANF (gap down)
Ssideways for first few candles as the $30 level holds as support. We break the OR on the 4th candle, but there is no follow thru and we drift sideways. Then we get a shallow uptrend, but always it is below the $30 which is now acting as resistance. The 12th is a NR3, NR7 which is off the OR and $30 level and closes below the ema. An ideal short trigger.
Entry: 29.59 Stop: 30.10
Fib Ext: 29.10
1R=29.08 2R=28.57 3R=28.06
The only slight critisism of this trade was that the Fib Ext was near the 1R so perhaps the r/r was marginal, but I liked the price action and the trigger.
After entry we go sideways intially but then fall nicely. For last 2 hours of the day, this is just perfect trending action downwards : keeping the ema close, but never closing above it.
We close partial at 1R since Fib Ext is near and leave the rest to run. This was closed towards the end of day for >2$ gain (around 4R or so).
BCS (gap down)
This was a trade which I don't normally take timewise as I don't watch the market at this time (Uk early evening), but today I was and because my other trades were going so well and the DOW was just going red , red and more red I thought it worth the risk.
The intial price action was inside previous day's range, but this was broken on the very weak 8th candle. After that we go sideways, but can never get above the previous day's low with any conviction. The 20th and 21st candles start falling and closing weak off the ema, this was my trigger for a short. A bit late with my entry, so didn't get the price I wanted.
Entry: 16.32 Stop: 16.70
1R=16.00 2R=15.65 3R=15.30
We fall with the ema after entry and then it's just all downhill. Take partial at 1R which is also whole number. The rest is closed at end of day for just over 3R (a $1+ gain).
UL (gap down)
After gap down, we get a big fall on the 4th candle. The 5th falls further and we cross the Fib Ext level (grey line). No entry set up yet, so just waited. We pullback on the 10th candle with a NR7 which is weak with wick off the ema. This is our short trigger for a trade beyond the Fib.
Entry: 23.67 Stop: 24.05
1R=23.29 2R=22.91 3R=22.53
We go sideways after entry, but then get the fall we are looking for at the end of the day. We take partial at 1R and leave the rest to run. This is closed at end of day around the whole number for a 2R gain (just a bit less).
Three good profitable trades. If you can catch the trend on these days where it is all one-way traffic then it does pay off. Generally, the market pain goes on and on with another red day. It will come to and end sometime though, just wish I knew when.
5 comments:
TR: couple of observations:
1) Is it safe to assume that your trading style tend to be more profitable in bull markets as opposed to bear markets? Your performance table seem to support this observation.
2) Is it also reasonable to assume that when your performance table is on the lackluster side of profitability, ie, in terms of # of R's, perhaps this is an early indicator of the general market overall trend? If you will a market barometer?
IMO, it seems that your performance table does support this idea. What are your thoughts?
Thanks, Ralph
thats studly trading... nice day on some different set-ups.
how is the economy across the pond?
TR: while we are on the subject, is it possible for you to graph your R's for the entire year and impose a chart of the Nasdaq? This might best illustrate graphically my contention that your performance table is a leading market indicator. Thanks, Ralph
ralph.
Not sure to be honest. The # of R's is also going to be related to "summer doldrums" ?
And the past couple of months have been increasingly volatile and choppy. This is more the reason I feel rather than a 'bull' or 'bear' market per se.
Because if you think about the strategy. One of my criteria is the gapping outside of previous day's range. Now if the market is up 300 points one day, then down 400 the next day. It is probable that any gaps outside the previous day are going to be fewer in number and thus the opportunities less.
This is one of the reasons why I am trying to expand on my strategy a little. As per my trades a couple of days ago.
Leading market indicator ? I doubt it :-).
qqqball.
Thanks.
Economy > Same as everywhere else..going downhill at a fast pace. The FTSE is down big time just like the DOW, Nasdaq etc.
The big area not surprisingly is the banking sector. The govt is trying to reassure people that their money is safe etc. If there is a run on one of the big banks then that could be in serious meltdown territory as far as the market is concerned.
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