AAUK,ADCT,ANF,BCS,CIEN,CMTL,COG,DPS,ENER,IBN,MATK,
MT,NUAN,NUE,PCAR,PH,PLCE,REGN,SFD,SID,TS,UBS,VRTX,ZRAN
These are the sort of days you wish would come along more often. Plenty of opportunities and some nice trending price action.
IBN (gap up)
First candle is red hammer and second breaks the OR. We then pullback to the OR where we gain some semblance of support. The 9th is hammer like and closes above the OR. The 10th and 11th candles are successive NR7 candles which also hold OR as support. The 12th is very bullish and closes above the OR, it is above the ema and closes strong itself. This is our long trigger.
Entry: 36.38 Stop: 36.15
Fib Ext: 36.71
1R= 36.61 2R=36.84 3R=37.07
The price rises sharply and we take partial at the Fib Ext (around 1.5R) and leave the rest to run. Two weak candles in the latter part of the day, come back and stop us out of the remaining position at breakeven.
UBS (gap up)
The 1st candle is red and we trend down before reversing back up to the oR. The 5th is a bullish green candle which closes above the OR and closes strong itself. Ideally it could have been closer to the ema, but I took the trade.
Entry: 25.25 Stop: 25.00
Fib Ext: 25.81
1R=25.50 2R=25.75 3R=26.00
The candle after entry is promising and we are hopeful. But there is no follow thru and the next two candles stops us out at breakeven.
MT (gap up)
The 1st is green and the 2nd is hammer which breaks the OR. The 3rd is also a strong candle which holds the OR as support. We then have a pullback which we are looking for. The 6th is a hanging man doji which bounces off the ema and also stays above the OR easily. You could argue a case for this being a trigger, but I waited for the next candle. This was a NR7 green closing higher and also obeying the ema. This was my long trigger.
Entry: 102.06 Stop: 101.59
Fib Ext: 102.74
1R=102.53 2R=103.00 3R=103.47
After entry, there is no looking back as the price action trends up with the ema. We take partial at the Fib Ext (1.5R) and leave the rest to run. The remainder is closed at end of day for an excellent gain. (> 3R). This sort of trade shows the value of holding until end of day and not being shaken out by a few red candles.
SID (gap up)
The 1st is red hammer. The 2nd is an inside bar green hammer. We then have successive sideways candles which fight over the OR. The 9th opens and closes above the OR. It is off the ema and also closes strong. This is our long trigger.
Entry: 48.80 Stop: 48.42
Fib Ext: 49.41
1R=49.18 2R=49.56 3R=49.94
We take partial profits at the Fib Ext (just below 2R) and leave the rest to run. We close this remainder at the end of day for a nice gain.
TS (gap up)
The 1st is green and 2nd breaks the OR. We then trend up strongly. It was difficult initially to get an entry I was happy with. But then eventually it came. After the trend up over several candles the 9th is a hanging man doji off the ema and also holding the whole number $63 as an extra level of support. You can make a case for this being a good trigger candle. But again I was cautious and wanted to see what the next candle would do. This was a NR7 with longish wick and close to the ema. This was my long trigger.
Entry: 63.54 Stop: 63.21
Fib Ext: 62.84
1R= 63.87 2R=64.20 3R=64.53
We are already past the Fib Ext on our entry. So I took partial at 2R and left the rest to run. This remainder was closed at the end of the day for a nice gain.
Overall, a very good day and a good month so far. If you can catch these sorts of days every so often, make the most of it. Trade your plan and with some strong trends on a day like today, it adds significantly to your profits. It will make up for other days which are choppy and much more difficult to trade.
13 comments:
Looks like it was a nice day for you, congrats.
On IBN any reason you did not use the 11th inside NR7 bar that held the OR as a trigger? Just being safe?
Same question for SID for candles 5 and 6 which are both bullish and off the ema.
How do you decide on whether or not to enter a trade beyond the fib ext like you did on TS? Any particular criteria you look for? Volume wasn't particular stellar or anything.
Thanks!
pdt.
IBN > Good question. I was indeed thinking about the 11th for the reasons you state. The main thing for me was the previous price action, we were coming in sideways from a downtrend and the ema was flattening out. So I wanted to see more of a bullish candle to get an entry from.
SID > Candle 5 was just a normal green candle. I didn't see it as a trigger. The 6th was a hanging man doji type and was in fact a trigger I used. But the order (at 48.71) never triggered on the next candle, so I pulled it. Luckily the stock gave us a 2nd chance.
TS > I don't use any special criteria for trade beyond the Fib Ext. I just use my standard strategy. These sort of beyond-Fib trades are only a small proportion of my total trades in a month as they don't set up that often.
P.S > From my watchlist, both NUE and COG were very good gainers. I didn't trade them because I had enough on my plate in terms of open trades. But if you found a decent entry point in those two, it would have given excellent rewards.
"SID > Candle 5 was just a normal green candle. I didn't see it as a trigger." - How does this differ from your UBS trigger bar?
In regards to your comment about beyond the fib ext, your standard strategy is after price holds at a major level then you enter? Normally the major level is ORH but in this case it is $63. Is that correct?
What would have been your entries in COG or NUE? I was looking at the 4th and 5th bar respectively but both were a bit from the ema. Wondering your thoughts.
Thanks again.
TR: I did a tabulation of the net result of all your trades. Here are my observations (please correct me if I am misguided).
Assuming a position risk of -$150 per trade, and based on your figures, this is your probably net gain per trade: IBN $116, UBS $0.0, MT $413, SID $208, TS $394, for a total gain of $1,131.
However, had you exited 100% of your positions at your Fib target, this could've resulted in the following gains: IBN $231, UBS $0.0, MT $204, SID $276, TS $264, for a gross of $975.
A net loss of -$156.
An interesting observation I thought, especially on such big rallies for most of your stocks.
BTW, excellent trading. I envy your ability to manage multiple positions all at the same time.
Ralph
we had completely different watchlists. Congrats.
ralph... interesting analysis. Wonder if you can do that for his entire week's worth of trades? It would be interesting to see how it pans out over the course of a week. I've been exiting at the fib. ext. with the reasoning that it's not worth the stress and time and continue a trade for a minimal gain at best or large profit loss at worse.
I've really been on the fence about this.
pdt.
The trigger candle for UBS closed strongly whereas the one for SID had a longer wick.
Beyond the Fib > Just looking for a pullback with ema support and a pattern candle (e.g. hammer like), narrowing bars etc. If there is whole number support then this adds to strength of the signal.
COG > 4th bar is bit too far from ema for my liking.. Still would have worked though. Candles 8, 9 10as a combination with the 10th as a trigger candle is what would have caught my eye.
NUE > 5th bar. Yes maybe. The EMA distance is not ideal, but the previous candle is bullish and we have whole number support. Later on the chart, the 7th bar is also a trigger worth considering.
ralph.
Thanks for the analysis. How did you work the TS trade figures ? as I was past the Fib Ext when the position was opened.
Multiple Positions > Normally 6 trades open is the maximum I do. Also because I don't exit on specific candle behaviour, I set my stops and targets once I enter a position. Then subsequently it is just a case of moving stops once the Fib Ext and/or 1R is hit and leaving it to run.
oonr7 and ralph.
I did do some analysis when i was paper trading last year and it was more profitable to take partial at Fib and leave rest to run until end of day.
However the feeling i get for the past couple of months is that there is no advantage either way and maybe even taking full profits at Fib Ext would be better. But I haven't done any hard analysis on the figures to back this up.
Thanks
Quick question in regards to your comment on NUE....
"Later on the chart, the 7th bar is also a trigger worth considering."
Do you mean the 6th bar (or possibly the 8th)?
Thanks
pdt.
Sorry, typo...I meant the 8th bar on NUE.
Ok good. Thought I was missing something :)
6th is quite compelling too.
TR: TS should be at 2R.
oonr7: something I will definitely look into and comment later on. But I agree. It is tough watching your hard earned profits evaporate. I have a feeling that when the long term trend of the market is in decidedly bull/bear mode, letting profits run definitely has its advantages. As the old timers like to say: you know its a bull market because stocks tend to open lower but close higher. (opposite for bear markets).
Ralph
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